Political Quicksand II - Who votes for AB1147
As promised, here is an analysis of election-year politics for the members of the California Senate's Public Safety Committee. They currently hold the fate of AB1147 in their hands:
1. Charles Poochigian (say it four times fast) is a Republican vice-chair of the committee, and he’s reached his term limit this year. Guess where he’s applying for a new job: He wants to be the next Attorney General! He’ll face a tough opponent in former governor and Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown, now the grand old man of California politics. But would he want to take a risk in being called soft on drug crime by allowing the hemp bill to get to the Senate
floor?
2. There are two others up for reelection in November, Gil Cedillo and Gloria Romero (both districts in the Los Angeles area). Yes, these are both safe districts (over 50 percent Democratic registration), but they both also have to deal with 20 percent “Decline to State” voters, who can fall into the Republican column very easily over a single issue. Would the hemp bill really threaten these districts? Maybe not, but there’s an element of political risk for these two.
3. Two Democrats in the Assembly joined 28 Republicans in the “No” column. Both are from fairly conservative districts in the Central Valley and Orange County. Senate Democrats, if this bill ever makes it to the floor, will have to make sure they keep these defections to a minimum. If five Dems decide to vote with the other side, the bill is history.
The bottom line is this: The hemp bill might make all the sense in the world, and it could help California make hemp a viable, money-making crop someday. But without the right political conditions, bills like AB1147 will remain in political imbo. Keep an eye on this bill after November, when the election storm is over.